College Football · Analytics

NovaModel vs the AP Poll

When our prediction engine and the AP Top 25 disagree about which team is better, one of them is wrong. Every one of those games from the 2025 season, graded by who actually won.

The answer · 235 regular-season games, the 2025 season

When the prediction engine and the AP Top 25 disagreed about which team was better, the engine was right 20 times and the AP 7: 74.1% for the engine.

If the two were equally good at picking winners, a split at least this lopsided would happen about 2% of the time (p = 0.019). That's unlikely to be luck.

This season played no part in choosing the engine's settings, so it's a genuine test, not a measure of how well the engine was fit.

Disagreements

Engine right

AP right

Engine share

74.1%

95% range 55.3% - 86.8%

Which NovaModel this is

Everything on this page grades the prediction engine: the model behind NovaKingSports' premium game predictions, built to forecast who wins the next game. It is not the model behind the rankings on the home page and the rankings page. Those use a résumé-adjusted model, which rewards what a team has already done - its wins, and who they came against - more than how it projects going forward. The two usually agree, but not always, so a team's spot in the displayed rankings can differ from how the prediction engine rates it.

Early season vs late

Early on, the engine's ratings rest on two or three games per team, while the poll starts from a preseason view of each team. Early disagreements partly measure who had the better head start.

Stage	Games	Engine picks right	AP picks right	Disagreed	Engine record
Weeks 2-5	66	84.9%	77.3%	7	6-1 (85.7%)
Weeks 6-9	72	79.2%	75.0%	11	7-4 (63.6%)
Weeks 10+	97	82.5%	77.3%	9	7-2 (77.8%)

Ranked vs ranked, ranked vs unranked

When both teams are in the Top 25, a disagreement is an argument about order. When only one is, it means the engine backed the team the AP left unranked.

Matchup	Games	Engine picks right	AP picks right	Disagreed	Engine record
Both in the Top 25	43	81.4%	55.8%	15	13-2 (86.7%)
One ranked, one not	192	82.3%	81.3%	12	7-5 (58.3%)

Every disagreement

Latest first.

Week 15#2 Indiana vs #1 Ohio State
AP picked Ohio State · Engine picked Indiana · Indiana won: engine right
Week 15#3 Georgia vs #10 Alabama
AP picked Georgia · Engine picked Alabama · Georgia won: AP right
Week 13Pittsburgh vs #15 Georgia Tech
AP picked Georgia Tech · Engine picked Pittsburgh · Pittsburgh won: engine right
Week 13TCU vs #25 Houston
AP picked Houston · Engine picked TCU · TCU won: engine right
Week 12#20 Virginia vs Duke
AP picked Virginia · Engine picked Duke · Virginia won: AP right
Week 11#8 BYU vs #9 Texas Tech
AP picked BYU · Engine picked Texas Tech · Texas Tech won: engine right
Week 10#17 Cincinnati vs #24 Utah
AP picked Cincinnati · Engine picked Utah · Utah won: engine right
Week 10#18 Oklahoma vs #14 Tennessee
AP picked Tennessee · Engine picked Oklahoma · Oklahoma won: engine right
Week 10#9 Vanderbilt vs #20 Texas
AP picked Vanderbilt · Engine picked Texas · Texas won: engine right
Week 9#23 Illinois vs Washington
AP picked Illinois · Engine picked Washington · Washington won: engine right
Week 8#23 Utah vs #15 BYU
AP picked BYU · Engine picked Utah · BYU won: AP right
Week 8#5 Ole Miss vs #9 Georgia
AP picked Ole Miss · Engine picked Georgia · Georgia won: engine right
Week 8#10 LSU vs #17 Vanderbilt
AP picked LSU · Engine picked Vanderbilt · Vanderbilt won: engine right
Week 8#12 Georgia Tech vs Duke
AP picked Georgia Tech · Engine picked Duke · Georgia Tech won: AP right
Week 7#21 Arizona State vs Utah
AP picked Arizona State · Engine picked Utah · Utah won: engine right
Week 7#15 Michigan vs USC
AP picked Michigan · Engine picked USC · USC won: engine right
Week 7#6 Oklahoma vs Texas
AP picked Oklahoma · Engine picked Texas · Texas won: engine right
Week 7#7 Indiana vs #3 Oregon
AP picked Oregon · Engine picked Indiana · Indiana won: engine right
Week 7#24 South Florida vs North Texas
AP picked South Florida · Engine picked North Texas · South Florida won: AP right
Week 6#24 Virginia vs Louisville
AP picked Virginia · Engine picked Louisville · Virginia won: AP right
Week 5#17 Alabama vs #5 Georgia
AP picked Georgia · Engine picked Alabama · Alabama won: engine right
Week 5#6 Oregon vs #3 Penn State
AP picked Penn State · Engine picked Oregon · Oregon won: engine right
Week 5#4 LSU vs #13 Ole Miss
AP picked LSU · Engine picked Ole Miss · Ole Miss won: engine right
Week 4#9 Illinois vs #19 Indiana
AP picked Illinois · Engine picked Indiana · Indiana won: engine right
Week 4#17 Texas Tech vs #16 Utah
AP picked Utah · Engine picked Texas Tech · Texas Tech won: engine right
Week 3#12 Clemson vs Georgia Tech
AP picked Clemson · Engine picked Georgia Tech · Georgia Tech won: engine right
Week 2Iowa vs #16 Iowa State
AP picked Iowa State · Engine picked Iowa · Iowa State won: AP right

How it's graded

In every regular-season game, the AP "picks" the better-ranked team (a ranked team over an unranked one), and the engine picks the team it rates higher. Games with neither team in the Top 25 are left out: the poll has no opinion on them.
Both use their rankings from entering that week, so neither had seen the result it's graded on.
Games where they agree count toward each side's accuracy but can't separate them. The head-to-head is only the games where they disagreed.
The 95% range on the engine's share is a Wilson interval. The p-value is an exact two-sided binomial test against an even split. Ties and unplayed games are left out.