September 15, 2026
College Football Week 2 Recap
Two top-ten teams lost to opponents who looked terrible in Week 1, the Big 12 race looks interesting, and Auburn makes the biggest upward jump in the NovaModel
This was the week of the bounce backs. Oklahoma State bounces back from a loss to Tulsa to beat Oregon and Michigan bounces back from a loss* to Western Michigan to beat Oklahoma. Two top ten teams losing to teams with terrible week 1 performances gives further proof to how dumb preseason rankings are. The Texas vs Ohio State game was crazy, did Texas bounce back or did Ohio State fold? Either way it was a crazy ending that ended with questions for both teams. The Big 12 looks like it won't just be a race to second behind Texas Tech, they did not have a great showing while both BYU and Utah looked great.
Biggest Moves
| Team | Move | Rank | Rating | Week 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | ▼ 97 | 21st → 118th | 59.4 → 39.6 | L 7-20 vs Montana State |
| Auburn | ▲ 76 | 85th → 9th | 48.6 → 65.9 | W 43-8 vs Southern Miss (55th) |
| Clemson | ▲ 70 | 134th → 64th | 33.7 → 49.1 | W 22-7 vs Georgia Southern (62nd) |
| Ole Miss | ▲ 62 | 82nd → 20th | 51.7 → 62.1 | W 41-9 vs Charlotte (135th) |
| Kansas | ▼ 57 | 41st → 98th | 54.6 → 45.3 | L 21-38 vs Missouri (51st) |
| UConn | ▼ 57 | 44th → 101st | 54.6 → 45.1 | L 14-38 vs Maryland (42nd) |
Biggest Rating Gain
| Team | Change | Rating | Rank | Week 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | +17.4 | 48.6 → 65.9 | 85th → 9th | W 43-8 vs Southern Miss (55th) |
| Clemson | +15.4 | 33.7 → 49.1 | 134th → 64th | W 22-7 vs Georgia Southern (62nd) |
| Oklahoma State | +14.7 | 38.6 → 53.3 | 98th → 50th | W 39-31 vs Oregon (35th) |
| North Texas | +13.5 | 36.2 → 49.7 | 117th → 62nd | W 44-6 vs UNLV (87th) |
| Florida International | +13.5 | 40.0 → 53.4 | 95th → 49th | W 33-20 vs Buffalo (89th) |
Biggest Rating Loss
| Team | Change | Rating | Rank | Week 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | -19.8 | 59.4 → 39.6 | 21st → 118th | L 7-20 vs Montana State |
| Memphis | -15.7 | 66.9 → 51.1 | 2nd → 58th | L 20-38 at Boise State (111th) |
| Georgia Southern | -10.6 | 54.2 → 43.7 | 62nd → 111th | L 7-22 at Clemson (134th) |
| Navy | -9.7 | 53.6 → 43.9 | 69th → 109th | L 30-38 at Florida Atlantic (125th) |
| UConn | -9.5 | 54.6 → 45.1 | 44th → 101st | L 14-38 vs Maryland (42nd) |
NovaModel Losses
| Result | Winner (NovaModel) | Loser (NovaModel) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State 38, Memphis 20 | 111th (36.9) | 2nd (66.9) | 30.0 |
| Clemson 22, Georgia Southern 7 | 134th (33.7) | 62nd (54.2) | 20.5 |
| Oklahoma State 39, Oregon 31 | 98th (38.6) | 35th (57.4) | 18.8 |
| California 21, Syracuse 18 | 124th (35.5) | 58th (54.3) | 18.8 |
| Florida Atlantic 38, Navy 30 | 125th (35.4) | 69th (53.6) | 18.3 |
| Marshall 28, Middle Tennessee 26 | 127th (35.0) | 78th (53.0) | 18.0 |
| Hawai'i 29, New Mexico State 19 | 138th (22.4) | 93rd (40.2) | 17.8 |
| Tulane 28, South Alabama 24 | 112th (36.6) | 74th (53.2) | 16.6 |
Ratings and ranks shown as "before → after" are the Week 2 and Week 3 runs: what the model thought before that week's games, and after. Every win and loss above is judged on the pre-game numbers, which knew nothing about these results.