October 6, 2026
Week 5 Rankings Recap
Florida and Mississippi State get blown out; the Big 12 and ACC keep looking deep.
This was a week of disappointments. Florida and Mississippi State both came into the week with huge excitement after their early season performance, and both got blown out. Still good times but worth reminding ourselves that hype is hype til the end of the season. The Big 12 and ACC continue to look stronger than years past with teams in the middle looking good. Northwestern might actually be a good football team for the first time in a while as well.
Biggest Moves
| Team | Move | Rank | Rating | Week 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | ▲ 35 | 86th → 51st | 48.4 → 56.0 | W 38-7 vs Virginia (40th) |
| Miami (OH) | ▼ 35 | 72nd → 107th | 50.7 → 43.5 | L 20-24 vs Bowling Green (137th) |
| Michigan | ▼ 31 | 30th → 61st | 61.0 → 53.8 | L 14-20 at Minnesota (50th) |
| Massachusetts | ▼ 29 | 34th → 63rd | 59.6 → 53.4 | L 14-38 vs Eastern Michigan (116th) |
| Kansas | ▲ 29 | 105th → 76th | 43.5 → 50.3 | W 55-0 vs Middle Tennessee (99th) |
| Arkansas | ▼ 27 | 65th → 92nd | 52.2 → 48.0 | L 7-34 at Texas A&M (66th) |
Biggest Rating Gain
| Team | Change | Rating | Rank | Week 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | +7.6 | 48.4 → 56.0 | 86th → 51st | W 38-7 vs Virginia (40th) |
| Eastern Michigan | +7.0 | 41.2 → 48.2 | 116th → 91st | W 38-14 at Massachusetts (34th) |
| Kansas | +6.8 | 43.5 → 50.3 | 105th → 76th | W 55-0 vs Middle Tennessee (99th) |
| Wake Forest | +6.5 | 56.9 → 63.4 | 47th → 25th | W 57-3 vs Stanford (83rd) |
| Missouri | +6.3 | 58.6 → 65.0 | 41st → 19th | W 45-17 vs Florida (4th) |
Biggest Rating Loss
| Team | Change | Rating | Rank | Week 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | -7.2 | 50.7 → 43.5 | 72nd → 107th | L 20-24 vs Bowling Green (137th) |
| Cincinnati | -7.1 | 64.2 → 57.0 | 22nd → 45th | L 7-34 at Arizona (58th) |
| Michigan | -7.1 | 61.0 → 53.8 | 30th → 61st | L 14-20 at Minnesota (50th) |
| Florida | -6.9 | 72.2 → 65.3 | 4th → 20th | L 17-45 at Missouri (41st) |
| Virginia | -6.6 | 58.7 → 52.2 | 40th → 66th | L 7-38 at Florida State (86th) |
NovaModel Losses
| Result | Winner (NovaModel) | Loser (NovaModel) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temple 17, South Florida 13 | 118th (40.3) | 29th (61.7) | 21.4 |
| Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20 | 137th (30.1) | 72nd (50.7) | 20.5 |
| Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14 | 116th (41.2) | 34th (59.6) | 18.5 |
| Missouri 45, Florida 17 | 41st (58.6) | 4th (72.2) | 13.6 |
| Florida State 38, Virginia 7 | 86th (48.4) | 40th (58.7) | 10.3 |
| San Diego State 31, Texas State 29 | 109th (42.8) | 62nd (52.6) | 9.8 |
| Arizona 34, Cincinnati 7 | 58th (54.4) | 22nd (64.2) | 9.7 |
| Northwestern 34, Penn State 13 | 60th (53.8) | 28th (62.5) | 8.7 |
Ratings and ranks shown as "before → after" are the Week 5 and Week 6 runs: what the model thought before that week's games, and after. Every win and loss above is judged on the pre-game numbers, which knew nothing about these results.