October 13, 2026
Week 6 Rankings Recap
Oklahoma takes down Texas, Pitt and Duke fall in the ACC, and the middle of the SEC is turning out to be pretty weak
Upset Saturday. Eight teams lost to opponents the model had rated at least 11 points worse, and two of them were top-five teams: Texas (3rd) fell to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, and Pittsburgh (5th) lost at home to North Carolina. The ACC had a rough day across the board, with Duke losing at Georgia Tech and both Pitt and Virginia Tech dropping games to teams the model had outside its top 65. Florida's slide keeps going: a week after getting run by Missouri, the Gators lost by 19 to a bad South Carolina team. The middle tier of the SEC (Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri, Florida, Tennessee) is proving they're not as strong as we originally thought. None of them have looked very good but will that matter to the AP voters? Definitely not.
Biggest Moves
| Team | Move | Rank | Rating | Week 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | ▼ 43 | 42nd → 85th | 57.4 → 48.8 | L 8-23 vs Buffalo (132nd) |
| Purdue | ▲ 28 | 79th → 51st | 50.0 → 56.5 | W 41-13 vs Minnesota (30th) |
| Minnesota | ▼ 25 | 30th → 55th | 61.2 → 55.2 | L 13-41 at Purdue (79th) |
| California | ▲ 25 | 97th → 72nd | 45.9 → 51.6 | W 25-20 vs Virginia Tech (31st) |
| North Carolina | ▲ 24 | 68th → 44th | 51.7 → 57.3 | W 21-17 at Pittsburgh (5th) |
| Oklahoma | ▲ 23 | 58th → 35th | 54.7 → 60.5 | W 27-24 vs Texas (3rd) |
Biggest Rating Gain
| Team | Change | Rating | Rank | Week 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech | +6.7 | 40.0 → 46.7 | 120th → 97th | W 28-25 vs Duke (21st) |
| Purdue | +6.5 | 50.0 → 56.5 | 79th → 51st | W 41-13 vs Minnesota (30th) |
| Oklahoma | +5.8 | 54.7 → 60.5 | 58th → 35th | W 27-24 vs Texas (3rd) |
| Buffalo | +5.7 | 35.7 → 41.4 | 132nd → 113th | W 23-8 at Toledo (42nd) |
| California | +5.7 | 45.9 → 51.6 | 97th → 72nd | W 25-20 vs Virginia Tech (31st) |
Biggest Rating Loss
| Team | Change | Rating | Rank | Week 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | -8.6 | 57.4 → 48.8 | 42nd → 85th | L 8-23 vs Buffalo (132nd) |
| Minnesota | -6.0 | 61.2 → 55.2 | 30th → 55th | L 13-41 at Purdue (79th) |
| Duke | -5.3 | 64.8 → 59.5 | 21st → 36th | L 25-28 at Georgia Tech (120th) |
| Temple | -5.0 | 45.9 → 40.9 | 98th → 117th | L 20-34 vs UConn (111th) |
| Sacramento State | -4.9 | 38.8 → 33.9 | 123rd → 135th | L 10-38 at Bowling Green (131st) |
NovaModel Losses
| Result | Winner (NovaModel) | Loser (NovaModel) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Tech 28, Duke 25 | 120th (40.0) | 21st (64.8) | 24.8 |
| Buffalo 23, Toledo 8 | 132nd (35.7) | 42nd (57.4) | 21.7 |
| Oklahoma 27, Texas 24 | 58th (54.7) | 3rd (74.5) | 19.8 |
| North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17 | 68th (51.7) | 5th (69.0) | 17.4 |
| UNLV 13, North Dakota State 7 | 70th (51.0) | 16th (66.3) | 15.2 |
| California 25, Virginia Tech 20 | 97th (45.9) | 31st (60.9) | 15.0 |
| South Carolina 38, Florida 19 | 62nd (53.4) | 20th (65.3) | 11.9 |
| Purdue 41, Minnesota 13 | 79th (50.0) | 30th (61.2) | 11.1 |
Ratings and ranks shown as "before → after" are the Week 6 and Week 7 runs: what the model thought before that week's games, and after. Every win and loss above is judged on the pre-game numbers, which knew nothing about these results.